International Sovereignty & Environmental Sovereignty

Dr. Ashraf Omar

Chairman of the 

Arab Council for Water and Food Security

Climate change poses a real threat to the world and particularly to the Arab region, especially in coastal countries such as Tunisia, Algeria, Libya, Morocco, the Gulf states, and the Nile Delta in Egypt 

Maintaining the climate and controlling pollution will increasingly become a matter of national security and a necessity for the future to avoid crises. We need a conscious and healthy generation because pollution contributes to developmental delays in children and increases the likelihood of various disasters and crises whose impacts are growing due to increasing pollution, for which we are collectively responsible 

This responsibility lies in the behavior of the state, industrial and service institutions, and individuals who fail to achieve even moderately low carbon footprints

Among the most significant causes of pollution are emissions of harmful gases from the burning of fossil fuels (oil, coal, gas) for energy production, transportation, and industry

For example, using coal emits about 3 kilograms of carbon dioxide (CO₂) per kilowatt—an alarming figure

Simultaneously, deforestation reduces the land's ability to absorb CO₂

As the population grows, intensive agriculture is increasingly used, resulting in methane emissions from livestock and rice fields, and nitrous oxide emissions from inaccurately used fertilizers, along with emissions from industrial processes. These processes release powerful greenhouse gases, such as hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs)

Furthermore, significant waste and methane emissions from landfills exacerbate the problem

Therefore, there is an urgent need to move towards smart agriculture, digital agriculture, and the adoption of coding and digitalization to achieve precise data for developing effective solutions. If we do not act quickly, climate change will accelerate, resulting in higher temperatures, changes in rainfall patterns, sea expansion, and rising sea levels—all threatening safety and stability

Higher temperatures lead to more frequent and prolonged heatwaves, increased water evaporation, intensified droughts, and stress on human health (heat strokes, respiratory diseases), as well as greater energy consumption for cooling. Rising temperatures also correlate with rising sea levels (due to water expansion and ice melt in polar regions), leading to coastal erosion, submersion of low-lying coastal areas, soil salinization, saltwater intrusion into groundwater, and poor drainage—all of which negatively impact agriculture

Saltwater intrusion also affects coastal infrastructure, including roads, ports, desalination plants, and seawater-based power plants. Climate change increases the intensity of heavy rainfall and disrupts rainfall patterns in certain regions, causing sudden floods and prolonged droughts elsewhere

Irregular rainfall seasons threaten rain-fed agriculture and resource management. The impacts on Egypt and the Nile Delta are particularly critical, as the Nile Delta is very low-lying (much of it is less than one meter above sea level) with fragile clay soils, making it one of the most threatened areas in the world by rising sea levels. Scientific estimates suggest that a one-meter sea level rise could affect up to 16% to 30% of the Delta

Although these are theoretical projections and “flooding” does not necessarily mean complete submersion, it would weaken productivity and reduce the region’s reliability

Since 2007, I have advocated for creating a new delta, and its location has been identified through research in climatically stable areas between 23° North latitude and the Equator—regions such as Sudan, Aswan, Luxor, and Qena (around 22° latitude). This would serve as an alternative delta while gradually transitioning parts of the current Delta for economic uses, especially those areas threatened by salinization, despite existing protective measures like wave barriers

However, salinization is accelerating. Even with Nile water for irrigation, rising sea levels drive saltwater further inland, raising the groundwater table and rendering the soil unsuitable for agriculture—even with available freshwater

To maintain productivity, lands in the Delta now require salt flushing and increased irrigation, which is challenging given the current water crisis—similar to coastal countries like Morocco and Tunisia. Highly saline soils destroy crops and drastically reduce agricultural productivity, posing a major threat to food security

Northern Egypt’s coasts, particularly in the Delta, are eroding rapidly due to rising sea levels and stronger storms. Crisis management agencies and emergency training are urgently needed to address this in tandem with the pace of climate deterioration and increasing climatic chaos

The region will face increasing cyclone activity due to rising sea surface temperatures, which fuel tropical and subtropical storms. Examples include Arabian Sea cyclones affecting Oman, Yemen, the UAE, southern Iran, and occasionally Pakistan, and Mediterranean cyclones (medicanes)—small but intense storms fueled by unusually warm Mediterranean waters

Notable events include Cyclone Gonu (2007) in Oman and Yemen: $4 billion in damages and 50 deaths; Cyclone Phet (2010): flooding and significant material losses; Cyclone Shaheen (2020): heavy rain, floods, and infrastructure damage. In Dubai, UAE (April 2024), record rainfall exceeding 250 mm in less than 24 hours caused destructive floods

The effective response demonstrated strong planning and infrastructure resilience. In Libya (Cyclone Daniel, September 2023), unusually warm Mediterranean waters spawned catastrophic rainfall (up to 414 mm), resulting in the collapse of two major dams (Abu Mansour and Al-Bayda), widespread destruction in Derna, over 4,300 confirmed deaths (with potentially higher actual tolls), billions in damages, tens of thousands of displaced individuals, and major public health crises

In Alexandria, Egypt, frequent recent events of torrential rain have overwhelmed outdated drainage systems, leading to flooded streets, traffic disruptions, property damage, and partial collapses of old and unsafe buildings—posing ongoing risks to residents 

With the increasing frequency and intensity of such events, robust emergency management, drainage system upgrades, and structural reinforcement (or relocation where necessary) are urgently required. Responsibility for addressing these challenges is shared among all parties: the state, institutions, and individuals 

At the state level, adaptation plans for sea level rise and Delta impacts should be developed, coastal defenses strengthened (wave barriers, sea walls, beach nourishment, smart land reclamation), effective drainage systems implemented to combat soil salinity, salt-tolerant crop varieties developed, plans for the resettlement of at-risk communities prepared, and hazard maps updated

Gulf and other coastal countries must invest massively in coastal protection, construct artificial islands and resilient infrastructure, modernize drainage networks to handle extreme rainfall, strengthen building standards for wind and rain, implement early warning systems for storms and floods, proactively manage dams and reservoirs, enforce no-build zones in floodplains and wadis, and preserve green spaces for water absorption and CO₂ sequestration

Addressing heat involves encouraging the use of heat-reflective building materials, revising building codes to limit glass facades, promoting urban greening with scientifically selected trees that effectively absorb targeted pollutants, obligating polluting industries to plant species suited to their emissions, developing carbon offset certification programs, and pursuing comprehensive carbon footprint reduction through renewable energy, energy efficiency, and sustainable transportation. Institutions must assess climate risks to assets and operations, develop business continuity plans, apply climate-resilient building standards to new projects, and invest in climate adaptation

Individuals must be made aware of local risks, trained in emergency preparedness (floods, heatwaves, storms), prepare household evacuation plans, follow official guidance during emergencies, insure property where possible (against floods, wind, fire), and conduct regular inspections of old buildings (especially in Alexandria), reinforce structures, identify weaknesses, and maintain emergency exits

It is essential to recognize that climate change is inevitable due to increasing pollution, despite existing laws—which must become universally binding

International laws must include penalties for violators, with no exceptions. There is a key difference between international sovereignty, defined by national borders (land, sea, air), and environmental sovereignty, which knows no borders

Pollution caused by the Global North affects the Global South and vice versa

Therefore, environmental sovereignty requires a unified, enforceable global legal framework—without exception—or climate chaos will intensify, leading to escalating food crises, instability, unquantifiable human and material losses, and widespread climate-related hysteria

We are all responsible for this challenge

We must adopt a scientifically sound and civilized approach to transition from an era of destruction to a sustainable and green future

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